Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Even after the trillions spent by the feds, the technical economic indicators are getting worse again.
Above and beyond the terrible news from Main Street (such as unemployment, weak retail, and declining shipping and manufacturing), several key technical indicators are worsening again, even after the government spent trillions on various bailouts:
- Credit default swaps against sovereign nations, European companies, and bonds are approaching their all-time wides (indicating severe risk).
- Interbank lending rates (LIBOR) have started edging higher again
- The Financial Times argues that TIPS rates point towards protracted deflation (see also this). More and more of the leading economists and analysts (such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BNP Paribas) are beginning to agree about deflation (at least in the short-run) to varying degrees.
Paulson has admitted that the bailout is not about "economic recovery":
“The rescue package was not intended to be an ... economic recovery package,” Paulson said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington.
Well, maybe that explains why things are getting worse.
Update: CDS spreads are again approaching "Armageddon levels".